Democratic strategist James Carville made waves on Friday by predicting that Vice President JD Vance will likely emerge as the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.Speaking on Conversations with Bill Kristol, Carville, long known as one of the Democratic Party’s sharpest tacticians, argued that Vance is consolidating support within the Republican Party and is well positioned to inherit the mantle of Donald Trump’s movement once the current president leaves the political stage.
Carville’s prediction echoes assessments from Republican strategists and independent analysts, who have pointed to Vance’s rising stature, his role as vice president, and his increasingly dominant position in early polling.If history is any guide, the odds are strongly in his favor: sitting vice presidents have historically been among the most successful candidates for their party’s nomination.On Kristol’s podcast, Carville described Vance as ambitious, talented, and calculating — traits that he argued will propel him forward in the coming years.“He’s consolidating everything,” Carville said. “I just don’t see — he’s ingratiated himself to all of these internal groups.
He’s a person of some — it’s not my cup of tea — but he’s obviously a person of considerable ambition and talent. And he’s plotting his course. I don’t see anybody that’s going to be able to — unless Trump were to blow up at him or something like that would happen, I don’t know. It’s really hard to see him not being a nominee in 2028.”Kristol, a conservative commentator and prominent “Never Trump” voice, responded with a succinct “Interesting,” underscoring the surprising bipartisan agreement about Vance’s trajectory.President Donald Trump himself has hinted that Vance is the favorite to carry the “Make America Great Again” banner after him. At a White House ceremony in August, Trump remarked that Vance was “probably favored” to inherit the movement.
“I think [Secretary of State] Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form,” Trump added, noting the possibility of a partnership between two of the most prominent Republican figures. “I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here.”Trump’s endorsement — even a tentative one — carries enormous weight within the Republican Party. His supporters remain one of the most powerful constituencies in American politics, and his favor could make or break any would-be successor.Vance has also drawn praise from other leading Republicans.
Marco Rubio, a former presidential contender and current Secretary of State, told Lara Trump in a July interview on Fox News’ My View with Lara Trump that “JD Vance would be a great nominee” if he chose to pursue the presidency.The idea of a potential Vance-Rubio partnership has already been floated by strategists who see the duo as capable of appealing to both grassroots conservatives and establishment Republicans.
Vance, with his working-class, populist appeal, and Rubio, with his foreign policy experience and national profile, could form a complementary ticket.Daily Caller News Foundation co-founder Tucker Carlson has also predicted Vance’s rise, saying in March that the vice president is best positioned to lead the GOP in the post-Trump era.Political analyst Mark Halperin echoed that forecast in May, suggesting that Vance and Rubio could very well top the Republican ticket in 2028.Republican strategists note that Vance enjoys structural advantages that make him difficult to beat. As the sitting vice president, he commands national visibility, fundraising networks, and organizational strength that potential challengers lack.
Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, noted in August that Vance holds a “huge lead” in early polling for the Republican nomination. While such polls are far from predictive this early, they reflect his central position within the party.The role of vice president has historically served as a springboard to the presidency. Figures like George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon, and Hubert Humphrey all leveraged the position to win their party’s nomination.Vance’s current service as finance chair of the Republican National Committee further cements his influence, ensuring he has direct control over critical fundraising operations.
Republican strategist Scott Jennings, a veteran of multiple presidential campaigns, spoke at Harvard’s Institute of Politics last week and described Vance as the clear frontrunner.“It would be shocking to me if JD Vance wasn’t the nominee of the Republican Party, provided that he and the president have a good relationship and this president continues to be viewed by Republicans as operating in the way they approve of, which they overwhelmingly do,” Jennings said.Jennings highlighted the importance of Trump’s continued approval. While Vance has cultivated a strong relationship with the president,
Republican politics remains fluid, and any sign of disfavor from Trump could quickly undermine his prospects.Still, Jennings suggested that such a rupture was unlikely and that Vance was on track to claim the nomination.Vance’s path to national prominence has been unconventional. Once a best-selling author critical of Trump, his memoir Hillbilly Elegy cast him as a commentator on the struggles of America’s working class.
Over time, however, Vance aligned himself with Trump’s populist agenda, a shift that propelled him into the Senate and eventually the vice presidency.This transformation has drawn both criticism and admiration. Detractors accuse him of opportunism, while supporters see a politician willing to listen to his base and evolve. Regardless of perspective, his ascent demonstrates the power of Trump’s political movement to reshape careers and reorder party hierarchies.While Vance appears to have the inside track, he is not without potential challengers. Ambitious Republican governors such as Ron DeSantis of Florida, Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, and Kristi Noem of South Dakota may all weigh bids for the presidency. Senators like Tom Cotton and Josh Hawley have also been floated as possible contenders.
Yet Vance’s advantage lies in his proximity to Trump and his ability to consolidate support across the party’s diverse factions. From populist activists to traditional conservatives, he has shown a knack for building bridges. Unless Trump himself turns against him, as Carville noted, Vance may face little serious resistance.For Democrats, the prospect of facing Vance in 2028 presents a unique challenge. Unlike Trump, whose polarizing style galvanized opposition as well as support, Vance projects a more disciplined and measured persona.Carville acknowledged this, noting that while Vance is “not my cup of tea,” he is “obviously a person of considerable ambition and talent.”This makes him a formidable opponent in a general election, where swing voters may be more open to his brand of populism than to Trump’s confrontational style. At the same time, Democrats see opportunities to highlight his shifts in position and frame him as untrustworthy.Nearly every analyst agrees on one point: Trump’s endorsement will be decisive. If Trump wholeheartedly backs Vance, the nomination could be a foregone conclusion. If Trump grows wary of his vice president or senses disloyalty, the dynamic could change dramatically.